We had early sales
before Christmas, we had January sales and late sales allied to low
interest rates and money being printed willy nilly by the Bank Of
England and yet consumer spending fell in December and January. The
fall in January was rather smaller than the fall in December and
retail sales figures are one of the more volatile indicators when it
comes to the economy so the next move could be up.
Personally I doubt it
will be though; inflation is making a return as wage and pensions
legislation comes into effect and as the effect of the weaker pound,
which fell again today on the news of the retail sales figures,
starts to bite. Brexit uncertainty must be playing on some peoples'
minds, oil prices are on the up, as are business rates, raw material
costs and so on.
It's not just consumers
who are quiet, major stockbrokers report that investors are putting
off decisions too.
What's the prospect
then for the Bank Of England's predicted 2% growth forecast? Looks
shaky to me, I have to say. The BOE has also expressed concerns about
levels of personal and household debt, dare they encourage more debt,
or do they try and rein in spending on credit? To do so would
probably be to rein in spending full stop and if they need to raise
interest rates in a few months, as I believe they may well have to,
then there will be a howl of pain from the already indebted majority.
Mark Carney could be
between a rock and a hard place although he's already talked about
scooting back to Canada in the not too distant future. Some of us
might like to scoot off to Europe but that door may close.
Liar in Chief Boris
Johnson and Universal Credit genius IDS crow about how good things
are, well of course the world didn't end that day after the
referendum and of course the weaker pound meant a short term bounce
for exports. Unfortunately we are sleep walking over a cliff and
since Mrs May can hardly play the role of siren she's pushing hard
from behind. Why might be a good question.
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